Why New Pros Sometimes Lose Momentum After Their First Few Leads
Early rejection can feel personal, but early signals often need time to take shape.
When new pros begin receiving leads, it is natural to hope for quick wins. If early conversations do not immediately turn into bookings, motivation can dip. What helps is understanding that early lead activity is part of building momentum, not a final measure of success.
An Insight from a Pro Who Became a Millionaire Using Thumbtack
Josh Downing, a top performing pro and founder of Direct Movement Group, offers a helpful example of how early lead activity can evolve over time.
Since starting his business, Josh’s company has generated more than $2 million in revenue from leads on the platform. That growth did not come from instant results. Over time, Josh has responded to more than 200 requests. He typically hears back from a portion of those leads, but when customers do engage, his close rate is strong at 78%.
His projects have ranged widely in size, from $6,000 to $900,000, with an average job size of about $100,000. Many of those initial jobs also led to additional work. For every job booked, Josh often received multiple referrals through word of mouth.
Josh attributes his long-term success to persistence and regularly refining how he connects with customers.
What New Pros Can Take from This
Josh’s experience shows that early leads are not about instant payoff. They help build familiarity, improve messaging, and strengthen follow-up habits. Over time, consistency and responsiveness make it easier for the right opportunities to convert.
New Pros Platform Tip: Stay Engaged While Momentum Builds
Early lead activity works best when it’s treated as information gathering. Each interaction offers insight into what customers respond to. Small improvements over time can make a meaningful difference.
Early uncertainty is common. Staying engaged helps turn early effort into steady progress.
Top Pros, what helped you push through the early leads stage?
CC: @DustiO
Comments
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@Bretdouglas67 I ’ve been thinking about what you shared at CommuniTea last Tuesday. It really stuck with me, especially the part about when you were using Thumbtack and working through the early leads stage. If you’re open to it, could you share again what helped you get through that phase? I think it would really help others to hear your experience. Thank you!
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Jumping in to tag some of our newest community members in case this helps you get started 😊
@jlpmm @RiseAboveCam @Yessie312 @Alethea @Robin @Gmlcarpenter96 @frhardwoodfloors @Aplanet @Heatheraleah08 @ROCKO678 @mmimikyu @AnnieBCreationZ @Amazingcle @DecoraWallpaper @Aline @Earvin @polishedstandard @Anji @Xavier70 @glukhov @Colleen @Adamrr @tlong @Nefchele @pivotlaw @FamigliaDesignBuild @Lazjen624 @homeprohandyman @AndresBogdanis @MyCleanCharlotteMaid @Rosheca1 @FencingSteve @Lloyd @Bretdouglas67 @SpectrumVictor @Marcopolo316 @TechExpert @Sherry6 @Matt @ShaquealThomas @Chris_Peterson@Leo_B0 -
I think that the hardest part of Thumbtack is if you look at every single lead cost and your roi on each lead. The problem is sometimes you will get bad leads or bad clients that have no intention of paying for quality work they're only looking for the cheapest price. The way that Thumbtack is set up needs to be explained a little bit better to the client that yes it is free for the client to post up a bid but the unfortunately side of it is I don't think that they realize that each vendor that they call out is being charged for that lead.
What got me through the process when I first started was looking at it more so in a weekly roi or a monthly roi. I have been with Thumbtack for over a decade and I've never had a week where I haven't made my money back or a profit utilizing thumbtack. If you need help setting up your profile or how to shut it down to save money 💰 💰 💰 💰
Please text me at 3865008217
Free help is always here
Bret Douglas
Top pro
thumbtackiron@gmail.com
Please reach out. Free help is always here
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Bret, Thanks for the insight. That hasn’t been my experience this far however. Just starting out, it’s difficult for a company that does not have big ticket items / services to justify the spend when they are competing here and everywhere with more experienced companies that have the reviews to back them up. The ROI just isn’t there for the newbies in my experience. I am glad you find it profitable and value the service.
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Thank you for your kind words. I also think part of the problem is that Thumbtack is so big and has so many different job tasks that it is almost hard to study each group and understand if it's worth the cost of the leads compared to the value that it brings
As an example.i I'm a commercial horticulturist. I have about different lead categories
Five of them are very reasonable leads. However two of them are very expensive generating close to $100 a piece for the lead price.
Even as a seasoned veteran we cannot afford more than two or three of these type leads each week as our budget is set for $350 a week
Please reach out to me by text or email. Or phone call but let's get together and see your categories and if there's any way I can help you to tweak it to make it worthwhile
I'm not a guru anymore. But I do have over a decade of changing with thumbtack and trying to always make money off it
God bless you on your journey no matter which way you choose but please reach out to me for some free advice if I can try to help you
Warm regards
Bret
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@Colleen I tried to take a look at your account to see if I could offer any tips/advice, but it looks like you've deleted it. If you ever want to give Thumbtack a try again, we would love to help you! There are many very experienced pros (even some who have been on Thumbtack less than a year) that we could connect you with and we as a Thumbtack team are happy to see how we can help too! Have a great day and thank you @Bretdouglas67 for the insights!
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I am to hear when we lose another thumbtacker
In these hard times. We have to watch every penny but it's like the adage you have to spend money to make money
I will always stand here in the breach ready to help any pro that needs me
I am always available
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@DustiO Yes, I think I’m am in to early a stage to go this route right now. I also most likely didn’t. give it enough time to see the value but as I mentioned I am just starting out. I’ll stick with the apps that help connect me to my customer and then take a bit of the money once a booking is confirmed for now. Right now, I have to manage my finances tightly and can’t afford to pay for looky-loos. Those apps are specific to my customer. I may consider giving it another try in the future. I appreciate you trying to help however.
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@Bretdouglas67 I did want to make a quick comment on something you said in your first message. “ The way that Thumbtack is set up needs to be explained a little bit better to the client that yes it is free for the client to post up a bid but the unfortunately side of it is I don't think that they realize that each vendor that they call out is being charged for that lead”. My husband actually used Thumbtack to find a handyman for a small project we needed to get done and honestly he was just looking at quotes to see if it was worth paying someone else to do it and Thumbtack encouraged him to reach out to multiple vendors when he didn’t respond and yes he was not aware that the vendor paid for him to communicate with them. He did happen to choose someone but he also reached out to 2 others just to let them know he found what he needed. I don’t know I think it could be re-evaluated myself on the criteria for a paid lead. But as I said, it works well for some so if those vendors are happy with the results, why change right?
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You are right
As a pro for many many years I've always thought they should charge say $25 to get with the client and then if you're hired then you have to pay a larger percentage say $75 once hired
The problem is that we as the contractors are forced to absorb too many of these $100 leads that never go anywhere. If we had done the new system then we would have only paid $25 and never had to pay the hundred
I don't mine when I sell a $20,000 job and I paid $100 for the lead
But it seems like that idea will never come to fruition and that's sad because it's a win-win for Thumbtack and the vendor
Good luck in your future with whatever you choose.
God bless
Warm regards Bret Douglas
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Thank you all for sharing your experiences so openly.
@Bretdouglas67 I really appreciate you taking the time to share what ’s worked for you and offering to help other pros. That kind of support makes a big difference in this community.@Colleen I completely understand being in an early stage and needing to manage your budget carefully . If you ever decide to give it another try, we’re here to help and can connect you with resources or experienced pros who may be able to offer guidance.
Grateful to see everyone showing up and supporting one another 😊
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Dusti, you can’t fix everyone’s problems! I do appreciate you so much more after talking in person (and getting my attitude out of the way I guess) but I still didn’t see that “refund” swore up and down to my bank account. Why would a CS agent say that and not follow through? It’s always “you have to contact your bank” ummm no it just wasn’t put back on my card by TT
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@FencingSteve they weren't just saying it — I could also see it in the account. So strange. Are you possibly looking for the wrong amount maybe?
Also, thank you for coming to that session, it is always nice to chat things through "face to face"!
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trust me, there’s nothing crediting me from TT
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I'd recommending reaching back out to support@thumbtack.com then, to see if they can get you more information on the credit, as I only have access to the information I have already shared (that the credit was granted in February), I can't view anything beyond that, unfortunately.
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What helped me the most when I started using Thujmbtack in 2023 was it worked. Sure, there were Tire Kickers, but they were far fewer. The number of "Only Picked Me" was greater than those who picked three, four or even six.
My win-ratio was 50%.
What killed my enthusiasm for Thumbtack was the changes you made in late 2024 or early 2025 when the "Only Picked Me" rate went to basically zero and my win rate plummeted while your profit margins skyrocketed.
I love how "patterns emerge" is listed in your graphic.Here's my data on "early leads" and late bloomers. TLDR; if you haven't scheduled an appointment the same day the User made his Inquiry, it's gone. If you can't service his needs tomorrow at the latest, it's probably gone too.
Granted, the sample size is only 284 Inquiries - I'm only using the User's first Thumbtack interaction. The numbers get worse when I include Thumbtack Users who make multiple requests as many will be shocked to find if they don't buy the first time, they don't buy the second, third or fourth time either.
Days_to_Completion
requests
1
19
2
13
3
10
4
6
5
3
6
1
7
5
8
4
9
5
10
4
11
1
12
1
13
1
14
1
15
1
17
1
18
1
19
1
20
1
21
1
22
1
23
1
25
1
27
1
28
1
30
3
38
1
40
1
41
1
48
1
99
1
165
1
185
1
200
1
Incomplete
188
70 sales made within 10 days of contact.(24.6% of contacts)
26 sales made after 10 days (9.1% of contacts)
188 Users didn't buy period. (66.2% no hires, IIRC 50%+ are unresponsive entirely.)
*total adds up to 99.9% due to roundingIf you haven't secured an appointment (although this data is completing the work) within a week, it's likely a loss.
If you haven't completed the work in 30 days, it's just gone.Source: Thumbtack Pro since 2023. Total gross revenue $55,000. Total net profit $18,000. Total Thumbtack failed lead generation dollars $3,722. Thumbtack successful lead generation dollars: $1,656.
My average non-Thumbtack job produces between 50-60% profit margins, at 32% margin like Thumbtack returns, it's not worth the headache.
But I do get a kick out of sharing my data with other Thumbtack Pros.0 -
In the subject of fairness, here's the same report of all first time requests from every non-lead generation source (No Thumbtack, Angi, Bark, NextDoor opportunities or even PRE Networking [break-out at end])
days_to_complete
request
1
14
2
4
3
6
4
6
5
5
6
5
7
5
8
4
9
3
10
2
11
1
12
3
14
2
16
2
17
1
18
2
19
3
21
2
23
3
24
1
25
1
28
1
31
2
35
2
38
1
39
1
40
1
51
1
62
1
110
1
134
1
173
1
521
1
Incomplete
58
Out of 147 first time requests:
54 sales made within 10 days of contact.(36.7% of contacts)
35 sales made after 10 days (24.8% of contacts)
1 is scheduled, listed as incomplete. (0.7%)
57 contacts didn't buy period. (38.7% no hires, but I did talk to every single one of them)
*total adds up to 100.9% due to rounding
Yes, one customer took 18 months to buy. I am still talking to another who first contacted me in November 2023, so he might be my longest conversion time ever. (but he's counted as incomplete).And finally, this is PRE Networking:
days_to_complete
request
7
1
9
2
10
1
12
1
13
1
17
1
18
1
20
1
44
1
58
2
101
1
Incomplete
15
Out of 28 first time requests:
4 sales made within 10 days of contact.(14.3% of contacts)
35 sales made after 10 days (32.1% of contacts)
1 is in progress ATM, listed as incomplete. (3.5%)
14 contacts didn't buy period. (50% no hires, but I did talk to every single one of them and I'm confident a large number will buy, they just don't have the funds yet)
*total adds up to 99.9% due to rounding
Angi returns negative profit margins, I'm not even going to run the query. NextDoor Opportunities and Bark have insufficient data to discuss ATM.Obviously, my business model does not rely on a continuous churn of new customers. We do good work, customers hire us repeatedly and we like that!
Why is the win-rate on Thumbtack 34% over my two-year active history when almost every other source (besides Angi) is 50-60+%? Especially when one considers the expense with Thumbtack costing $8 per direct labor hour (DLH) vs. all non-lead generation being essentially zero dollars (business cards, vinyl advertising on my truck, "yard signs" are basically free over time.) And PRE Networking is fixed at $400/year: it's about a dollar per DLH.
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@DerHilfer_LLC Thanks for taking the time to share all of this… seriously, the amount of detail you included is really helpful. It’s always interesting to see how pros track their own numbers and compare different lead sources. The way you broke down timing and conversions is especially insightful, and I’m sure other pros reading this will find it useful too.
And you’re right… patterns do start to show up when you track things over time. Some pros see very fast conversions, while others see longer cycles depending on the type of work and the customer situation. Either way, seeing real numbers and experiences like yours helps the broader conversation. We also hear the concerns you shared, and feedback like this helps us better understand what pros are experiencing on their side. Thanks again for being open and sharing your perspective here.
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Thanks for the reply. I believe I'm rather unique in my skill set as I doubt many other Thumbtack service providers have the experience to not only do their advertised service well, but also to gather and analyze the data to make their business succeed unless they're a data analyst. They probably "play it by ear".
Which is what I have done with my statement that in 2023, Thumbtack was massively better than it is in 2025.
The data doesn't have friends or feelings and it agrees:2023: Incomplete rate of 57.14 or a win rate of 42%. Which I consider to be acceptable since a large number of Thumbtack users are "window shopping".
2025: incomplete rate of 65.48 or 34% win-rate.
That's 8% fewer sales and I certainly paid attention.
I'd like to point out my conversion time on Thumbtack is what it is because I looked at the data and said "I'm losing my shirt, I need to do something." And the something was to behave in a very unsavory way, to force your Users into a sale immediately. You'll notice the PRE Networking is very relaxed. These people want to buy from me when they can afford my services. If it takes three or four months of saving, that's fine. I realized I can not afford to service Thumbtack Users. And that's why I "hide my business" pretty much all the time.
We've recently finished a massive project early this week. Because it consumed so much time, I have not pursued new and repeat business in over a month. Old me would have turned on Thumbtack and waited for the fish to bite. But, current me doesn't see the value because the win-rate vs. cost of Thumbtack fees is basically: I'm better off sitting at home running queries.Ironically, in my fog of getting the job done, Thumbtack turned my listing on again Feb 28 and in the first day, I got two garbage leads. One "I fixed it myself, thanks!" and one wrong category (and is also going to cost the User a lot more than she thinks because it's a far more complicated job than she thinks. Curtain rods at 10' ceiling, NBD. Curtain rods on 18' ceiling: scaffolding that's going to double the cost. She'll hire some hack who will show up with a ladder and it'll be crooked, not my problem.
You said you hear our concerns. There's a difference between hearing and listening. These are the things I would consider positive improvements that would make me consider returning to your platform.
- ONE pro may be contacted by any User, no more.
- Any fee for a job that is not scheduled within a week (meaning it's on the calendar to be completed) is auto-refunded.
- Any fee for a job that is not complete within 30 days is auto-refunded.
I believe the data listed above backs up my assertions. I can go into further detail as to the cost of your service does not provide an ROI that makes it worth my while to turn my business on for your platform. Furthermore, based on my data, Thumbtack has made $37,000 gross profit from my participation in your service while I've made $18,000 net even though I'm the one doing the work you're just very expensive advertising. The "lead generation" software industry continues to attract more competitors every day, perhaps it's time you lead by treating your Pros as customers who you value and want to retain rather than hearing us complain on your message boards all day.
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I will say this tracking all that data is great but I've been with Thumbtack for over 10 years and I've never had a single week that I've used them that I've never not profited immensely by using their platform. Actually unless it's word of mouth jobs I use 100% Thumbtack jobs to drive my business
I truly think it's whatever business model you're in whether you make a profit or not. My partner is always telling me to shut down my account every time we have enough bids to go on and always service our clients. We do not book anything out past a week or so. In Florida there are 1500 landscapers and they would never wait three or four months for someone. We simply bid one week do the jobs and then put our Thumbtack back on and get some more leads
But whatever works for every vendor is awesome you just have to get your own groove going and take care of it
I believe and thumbtack and I will always be a thumbtacker
Warm regards Bret Douglas
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Glad Thumbtack is working for you. Try to secure repeat business so you're not dependent on one platform. I would think that landscaping would lead to so many opportunities like fencing, lawn care (especially FL? Like no one mows their own grass!), hardscaping, decks, solar referrals, pool care, home repair referrals. tree service. So man derivative opportunities.
You got this!2
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