Thumbtack Numbers: If Customers Aren't Responding, What Is Thumbtack Selling?

I hope Thumbtack leadership sees this. I also hope investors at Sequoia, Tiger Global, Founders Circle, and others are paying attention.

Please don't dismiss this as another Pro complaint. Pros complain about lead prices, ghost leads, window-shoppers, refund denials...or the weather that day...just about anything. Have for years. Still, Pros will continue to spend with Thumbtack (and continue to complain, of course) as long as Thumbtack has the one thing Pros need: customers.

And then came Thumbtack Numbers.

Our historic win-rate for Thumbtack leads is 30-40%, and we try to stick to the formula that works:
-respond on Thumbtack
-send text message with intro, info, and questions to initiate interaction
-refine the quote and text the link, many customers approve it online and are ready to book
-call if no response yet
-if they answer, we're likely to close
-if they don't answer, send the quote via email, and move on
It's all over in about 4 minutes. But more recently, our response rate has dropped below our old win rate.

Pros complaining is noise. Customers not engaging with Pros via Thumbtack Numbers is the signal that you should pay attention to. It means customers who used to hire us are not even responding through Thumbtack Numbers. It means even the high-quality customer leads are confused or weirded out by the random, non-local phone numbers contacting them.

Yes, ghost leads were a real problem. A significant portion of paid Thumbtack "leads" never respond. Refund requests are denied almost immediately. Thumbtack needed to fix that. And Thumbtack Numbers indeed fixes that. We don't have to pay for ghost leads anymore! But...we're also not winning new customers through Thumbtack anymore.

That is the issue. Not that Pros are unhappy. But that you're no longer bringing us customers.

The work still needs to get done. Houses will still get cleaned, painted, repaired, landscaped, remodeled, and maintained. The high-quality and high-interest leads, customers who really need services, will still find Pros to do that work through other channels.

Pros won't leave all at once. You won't see a mass exodus, and you might not notice the churn right away. We will just spend less on Thumbtack, especially with all the automatic refunds, and follow customers to the the platforms and channels where they actually engage. By the time this is apparent in your financials, the stubborn, hard-to-reverse shift away from Thumbtack has already occurred.

Because if customers aren't engaging through Thumbtack Numbers, what are you selling?

Dream Clean
Denver, CO